Decarbonization and Reliability

This is Part III of a series reviewing Cornell’s electric system and investigating its reliability. Part I detailed the cost of various Cornell utilities. Part II discussed what happens during a large-scale power outage.  Part III discusses local, state and national efforts to “decarbonize” and the potential impacts on Cornellians.

Cornell, the City of Ithaca and the New York State have set ambitious goals to shift from fossil fuels (such as natural gas) to green electricity.

Cornell wants “a low-carbon future by 2035.”  Ithaca has set a 2030 deadline, and the state wants to end natural gas use in buildings by 2050. Though nuclear, hydro, wind, solar and geothermal emit less carbon, they need electric transmission to move to their markets.  In contrast, natural gas pipelines provide a very low-cost and energy-dense way to move energy into Ithaca.

This efficiency difference means that if Ithaca and Cornell suddenly converted from gas to electricity, they would require a much larger electrical grid connection.  It is not clear who would pay for it or whether affected landowners would fight those plans with cries of “Not In My Back Yard!”  

Decarbonization Has Costs Both on Campus and in Ithaca

While Cornell might try to escape the challenge with its on-campus generation and future geothermal projects, the Cornell facilities not directly connected to the central campus “island” may bear the full brunt of this “decarbonization” challenge.

As a step to prepare for this, Cornell received a $127,000 grant from New York State Electric and Gas (NYSEG) to install a ground source heat pump in its Child Care Center this year.  While normal heat pumps take warmth from the air, this pump uses a hole drilled 500 feet into the ground to mechanically extract or expel heat.  As a result, Cornell will replace the Center’s gas furnace. Obviously, Cornell could not afford to make such an expensive conversion in each of its buildings located outside its central campus.

Cornell must address its many properties that are separately connected and metered to NYSEG.  If electric demand in Ithaca grows to the point that the demand exceeds the available installed transmission capacity, Ithaca will become a congestion “load pocket.”

Although Cornell makes its own power, NYSEG’s bills for moving electricity to Cornell’s off-campus meters could dramatically increase due to congested transmission lines into Ithaca.  Conversely, with marginal pricing based upon each generator’s location, the price that NYSEG would pay Cornell for any generation in excess of campus demand would be high if power transmission into Ithaca becomes congested. So, Cornell would have an incentive to burn more gas in its central plant to make surplus power to sell back to NYSEG.

Decarbonizing New York City

Cornell faces similar challenges in New York City where it has two campuses.  New York City is also a congestion load pocket, making substituting electricity for gas very expensive.  However, in late 2019, New York City adopted an ordinance setting strict limits on electric appliances in 2023 and requiring all new buildings to be all-electric by 2027. 

The Cornell Tech campus has 2,093 solar panels over two buildings and will generate 995 MW hours of electricity each year.  It uses geothermal heat pumps to heat and cool the buildings. The first phase of Cornell Tech meets the New York City standards, and future phases will have to meet whatever standards are in effect as they are built. However, unlike Ithaca where Cornell is such a large player in the electric market, Cornell has a negligible impact on the electric bills that students who live off-campus in Manhattan must pay.

Nationwide policy

The cost consequences of transmission congestion, as well as how to integrate electric customers who have their own mini-power system into the national electric grid, is a matter of fervent national debate.

The issue is especially relevant following the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s adoption of Order No. 2222, requiring electric system operators to allow “distributed energy resources” (like Cornell) to take part in energy markets and system planning.

In short, federal regulations may provide more latitude to independent people and institutions that generate energy— from sets of suburban families with roof solar panels to massive systems like Cornell’s.

On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. It provided funding for consumer-home energy rebate programs to electrify home appliances and perform energy-efficient retrofits. It also allows non-profits like Cornell to transfer their clean energy tax credits to tax paying entities. No Cornell plan is in place for having student residences outside the central campus “island” benefit from this law.

In December, the $1.7 trillion Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 provided funding for many climate change initiatives, but no restrictions on the use of gas.  The package provides an additional $5 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.  With Republicans now in control of the U.S. House further climate change legislation is unlikely.  

New York State Climate Action Council

If Ithaca’s decarbonization plans were not sufficiently confusing, New York State has its own plans that will frighten any landlord, Greek housing officer or even Cornell parents back home.  

Because upstate New York has a low fossil fuel mix for making electricity consisting of 41% nuclear, 41% hydro, and only 7% natural gas (as of 2018), statewide policies will seek to end natural gas usage (by converting to electricity) in order to address climate change.

(Photo by Kevin P. Coughlin/Office of Governor Andrew Cuomo)

On July 18, 2019, Governor Andrew Cuomo signed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act)   The Climate Act’s goal is to cut New York’s economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent by 2030 and no less than 85 percent by 2050 from 1990 levels.

While New York State has a robust economy, meeting these goals would only reduce the world-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 0.04%.  This is because China and other developing economies generate far more greenhouse gasses than New York State.

Although most climate change policies are made at the federal level or by international agreements, environmental advocates have argued that states must act to curb greenhouse gas emissions that are beyond federal control.

The Climate Act was easy to pass because it set vague goals without any specific plan. Instead, the Climate Act established a 22-member Council to propose a plan back to the legislature. Half of the Council members were heads of state agencies or politicians, but the remainder were appointed by politicians.

The Speaker of the NYS Assembly appointed Robert Howarth, a Cornell professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology. Prof. Howarth’s prior political experience was as Chair of the University Assembly, where his strategy forced the Trustees to divest from fossil fuel companies. 

On December 19, 2022, the Council delivered its scoping plan.  Among other steps, the plan would end natural gas use in New York buildings by 2050, including gas cooking, hot water heaters and furnaces. Prof. Howarth filed a dissent calling for a faster time frame with the deadlines for installing new gas appliances moved up by a year.

The Governor announced her climate change package at the State of the State address (Photo captured from the YouTube livestream of the address)

On January 10, 2023, Governor Kathy Hochul delivered her State of the State address:

I’m proposing a plan to end the sale of any new fossil-fuel-powered heating equipment by 2030.

And I’m calling for all new construction to be zero-emission, starting in 2025 for small buildings and 2028 for large buildings. We are taking these actions because climate change remains the greatest threat to our planet, and to our children and grandchildren.

By “zero-emission”, she means electric and not gas. Although the Governor has yet to propose specific legislation, Republican members of the legislature quickly held a press conference opposing any such proposal.

They argue that one state alone imposing these limitations is unworkable and would place New York at a competitive disadvantage.  They argue that local governments are ill-equipped to enforce such unpopular restrictions on home appliances.

This is a high stakes debate for Gov. Hochul.  When California gambled by restructuring just their electric power market, California was hit with rolling blackouts and its largest electric utility went bankrupt. California then recalled its Governor, Gray Davis, and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003. With so much political risk, the fate of the proposed state restriction on gas appliances is unclear.  

Republicans opposed limitations on gas appliances (Photo captured from livestream of the press conference)

In the meantime, Prof. Howarth acquired a research grant to develop ways for local governments to estimate greenhouse gas emissions.  Cornell and Ithaca continue to consume customary levels of natural gas, without congesting the electric transmission lines into Ithaca at this time.

While long-term planning could achieve a transition to a “decarbonized” future, greater instability and economic disruptions can be expected during the transition. Given these circumstances, Cornell must re-evaluate its current  “decarbonization” investments and put more emphasis on additional electric reliability for its students, faculty, and staff.