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With less than a week until the 2020 Presidential Election, things are looking grim for President Trump. He has consistently trailed Joe Biden in national polls by double digits, and is underwater in virtually every swing state he needs to win the election. As of now, the president stands a 12% chance of winning the election, according to FiveThirtyEight. But does this mean that all hope is lost for Donald Trump? Let’s take a look.
Firstly, the good news for Republicans: while many predicted that early voting and mail-in voting would show a strong Democratic lead, Republicans have outpaced Democrats in early voting in the key swing states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas. Republicans, moreover, have managed to make strong gains in voter registration in the states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which are crucial for a Trump victory. And while the national polls have shown Trump underwater by double digits consistently, some recent polls cast doubt on that projection: a new Rasmussen poll shows the president down by only 3 points, and an IBD poll shows Biden up by only 2.
The picture is even brighter in swing states: according to FiveThirtyEight, Trump has a very slight lead in Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa, and is within the margin of error in North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. If Trump wins all six of these states, he would need only one more major battleground (Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin) to win reelection. While these three states are slightly more blue than the other swing states, they are still relatively close: Biden only has a 4.2 point lead in Pennsylvania and a 4.6 point lead in Wisconsin, according to RealClearPolitics averages. While this still makes Trump seem like the underdog, Trump is actually doing 0.3 points better, on average, in 6 battleground states (FL, PA, WI, MI, NC, and AZ), than he did in 2016. Trump was able to win all 6 of these states in 2016, and so it shouldn’t be surprising if he’s able to do so again.
But that’s not all: demographically, Trump is doing much stronger among minorities than would be expected for a Republican, especially in swing states. Trump is doing 14 points better among Hispanic voters in this election cycle than he did in 2016, and is virtually tied with Biden among Latino voters in Florida. Trump lost Latino-heavy Miami-Dade county by 30 points in 2016, but recent polls show him down only 17 points against Joe Biden. And when it comes to Black voters, Trump is outperforming his showing in 2016, when he lost the vote of African Americans by 82 points; he is behind by only 71 points for 2020. To be clear, Trump is still significantly behind Biden among all minority demographics, and it is obvious that Biden will win a majority of minority voters nationwide, as Democrats have been doing for years. But that doesn’t matter. In key swing states, where the election can be decided by a percentage point or less, all Trump needs is to eat away at the margins of Biden’s support, and he can come out on top. And considering that Trump’s standing among minority voters has increased by double digits, his prospects of winning crucial battlegrounds are much stronger.
Of course, there is still some bad news: some of the states in which Trump is eking out leads shouldn’t even be swing states in the first place. Arizona, Texas, and Georgia have been rock-solid red for decades, so the fact that Republicans are playing defense in these states is certainly a cause for concern. Trump does indeed have a lead in Texas and Georgia, but these leads are slim, and, while unlikely, if the country swings heavily toward Biden, Biden could carry Texas and Georgia in a blue wave. So, not only is it important that Trump wins swing states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, he must also ensure victories in tenuous states like Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. If Biden is able to successfully tear down the red wall that has kept Republicans competitive in national elections for decades, it’s game over for the president.
And although Trump is doing better demographically among minorities, he’s losing voters from his traditional base: whites. Trump’s lead among white voters has been slashed in half from 2016 to now: Trump led Clinton by 14 percentage points among whites in 2016, but now leads Biden by merely 7. And while Trump’s support among whites between 18 and 44 has increased by 13 points since 2016, it’s dropped by 18 points among whites over 44. Trump’s support among white women has plummeted by 15 points since 2016, such that he trails Biden by 6 points among that demographic. And if Trump wants to win white, upper-middle class suburbs, which have been an important Republican stronghold for years, he is going to need the support of white women to score that victory. Lastly, while Trump’s standing among whites with a college degree is 10 points better than it was in 2016, he’s doing 13 points worse among non-college educated whites than he did 4 years ago. Keep in mind that it was blue-collar, non-college educated white voters who delivered Trump the decisive victory in 2016 by flipping the rust belt states to his side. If Trump wants to pull that off again, continued support from blue-collar whites in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be vital.
So, overall, Trump’s chances aren’t as bad as the media would have you believe. Based on the analyses of demographics, voter turnout, and swing state margins, Trump, in reality, has a 30-40% shot of remaining the president for another 4 years. In the home stretch of the election, Trump needs to retain a clear focus on the themes of his campaign: the economy, law and order, and fair trade. Furthermore, he needs to convey the message that Biden doesn’t deserve to hold the reins on any of these issues. Trump certainly has a solid chance of holding onto North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, and Pennsylvania, given his improved performance among demographics that could make or break the election for him: Blacks and Hispanics. Will this all be enough? Maybe or maybe not. But on November 3rd, we’ll know for sure.
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