Continuing our recent series of posts on the 2010 midterms (my initial post, and then a revised argument) here’s an article by William Schneider that points to the unlikelihood of a “1994 repeat” for the Republicans in 2010. Schneider argues that Obama’s approval ratings are higher than Clinton’s numbers before the 1994 midterms when Bill was also pushing for health care reform, and that there is not an overwhelming resistance to general changes in the health care system:
Critics warn that overhauling health care would mean too much government control. As Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., put it, “The Democrats believe that you’ve got to change the entire health care system in America, including the so-called government option, which we believe would lead to a government takeover of the health care system.” Actually, about three-quarters of Americans say they think that it is “necessary to make major structural changes in the nation’s health care system” to make sure that all Americans have health insurance (77 percent) and to reduce health care costs (74 percent).
I don’t disagree that public opinion might be more favorable towards Obama’s health care reform in 2009 than it was towards Clinton in 1993-1994, but it’s obvious that this will not be the only decisive issue for voters in 2010. Schneider admits this in his own article: “Remember ‘angry white men,’ the hot constituency in 1994? They drove a huge backlash against the new Democratic president and threw the Democrats out of power in Congress. What made them so upset? The threat of ‘Big Government’ — taxes, gun control, and health care reform.”
What could drive a “hot constituency” of conservatives/independents in 2010? A few things come to mind: health care reform, increased taxes, the government stimulus, cap and trade legislation, White House transparency (maybe overblown, but how did Axelrod get all those emails??), oh, and Joe Biden! Even if the conservative aren’t manning the barricades against health care reform, there’ll be plenty of other crucial issues that could drive an anti-Democratic backlash in 2010.
