The People’s Republic of China has long been seen as a rising global superpower, projected to overtake the United States as the world’s leading economic superpower. Experts believing in China’s “inevitable” rise to the top have assumed that China’s meteoric growth rate and, by extension, growing political power would propel the communist country to the forefront of the world stage. A year ago, these experts would have been correct. In recent years, China has claimed almost all of the South China Sea, going so far as to build legally questionable military posts on artificial islands. Additionally, the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership was successful at promoting the “Belt and Road Initiative”, with Italy being the first G-7 country to join in 2019. Despite this appearance of success, recent diplomatic and geopolitical developments have isolated the once-invincible superpower.
Occurring for over a year now, the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests and their subsequent events have greatly influenced Beijing’s diplomatic relations with the rest of the world, particularly the United States and European powers. Beginning as a protest against the proposed extradition bill to China, the protests developed into a mass-movement characterized by the slogan, “Five Demands, Not One Less”. After China’s National People’s Congress passed the National Security Law, which eroded Hong Kong’s autonomy, the United States and other major powers took swift action. In July, the United Kingdom suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong. The United States followed suit in August, followed by the revocation of Hong Kong’s special trade status and sanctions on Hong Kong officials. Furthermore, the European Union restricted the exports of technology to Hong Kong that could be used for “internal repression, interception of internal communications, or cyber surveillance”. In response, China has threatened its partners, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calling China’s actions “coercive”.
Another area in which China has increasingly isolated itself is human rights. As early as 2017, human rights groups were aware of the presence of concentration camps in the Chinese province of Xinjiang. According to Dr. Adrian Zenz of the Victims of Communism Memorial Institute, who recently spoke to students at Cornell, around 1.5 million Uyghurs have been imprisoned in what the Chinese Communist Party calls “re-education” and “vocational” centers. Since The New York Times and other media outlets published leaked documents showing the CCP’s knowledge of the concentration camps, members of the global community have responded harshly towards China. In June 2020, President Trump signed the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act into law and imposed sanctions on senior Chinese officials responsible for the camps. Previously, New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has raised the issue in her meetings with Chinese president Xi Jinping. As of October 2020, thirty-nine countries have condemned China’s actions in Xinjiang.
Additionally, in an effort to isolate China, the United States has been taking diplomatic steps to solidify its alliances in the Pacific region. Earlier this month, the foreign ministers of the “Quad” alliance (United States, Japan, India, and Australia) met in Tokyo to discuss the ongoing border dispute between India and China, as well as China’s troubling economic influence. The “Quad” was revived in 2017 as a bloc concerned about the Indo-Pacific region, particularly China’s growing influence. Japanese foreign minister Toshimitsu Mohegi stated at the end of October’s meeting that the group would welcome other countries to join the bloc. In addition to reviving the “Quad”, the United States has taken steps to reaffirm its defensive commitments in the region. In July, the United States and India held a joint-naval exercise in the Indian Ocean in pursuit of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”. In June, the United States and the Philippines reaffirmed their twenty-two year-old agreement to hold joint-exercises, marking a dramatic tone in President Duterte’s formerly anti-American foreign policy.
In addition to American-led initiatives, regional powers have been collaborating to safeguard themselves against China. As reports of China’s involvement in the suppression of information about COVID-19 surfaced, Australia pushed for a World Health Organization investigation into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, an EU co-sponsored motion being supported by over 137 countries in May. In addition to conducting joint military exercises, India and Japan also signed a military supply sharing pact in September. Even Russia has entered the regional fray, likely signing a defense logistics sharing pact with India by the end of the year.Where do these external pressures and diplomatic machinations leave China? With Western powers becoming increasingly unwilling to use Chinese companies’ 5-G technology in their digital infrastructure networks and the Belt and Road Initiative being seen as a vehicle for neo-colonialism, China has undoubtedly become more isolated in recent years, and there is increasing worries in the upper echelons of Chinese academia and government. Li Yang, director of the Chinese Academy for the Social Sciences National Institute for Finance and Development, warned, “[China has] every reason to say that an international alliance is forming that excludes China and the Chinese yuan.” As the West’s encirclement strategy continues to develop, this isolation will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
